Appendix Report 9: The Future of Housing in Virginia

Abstract

The research study used Scenario Planning to imagine three possible futures (scenarios) in the Commonwealth and to offer insights as well as sign-posts to aid in the detection of which future Virginia is realizing. Scenarios are coherent and credible stories describing how the future may unfold. Scenarios are not forecasts, but the three here are plausible paths to 2030. These alternative paths allow one to imagine, and then to develop, strategies for how to be prepared to meet the housing needs of alternative futures. The first scenario is where Virginia’s economy is “surfing” above the growth rate of the U.S. through decisive action. The second scenario is where Virginia is “struggling” below the growth rate of the U.S. through adapting too deliberately and reactively. The third scenario is where Virginia is “strolling” at the same economic growth rate of the U.S. through lack of innovative action. Each future is possible but dependent on Virginia’s actions.